Understanding the UDA-ODM cooperation—what it is, what it isn’t, and why it matters
The Moment Everything Changed
June 2024. Kenya’s streets erupted. Gen Z protesters filled Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Nakuru—demanding accountability, rejecting the Finance Bill, calling for fundamental change.
The political establishment faced a stark choice: Dig in defensively, or listen and adapt.
President Ruto chose adaptation. He withdrew the Finance Bill. He dismissed his Cabinet. And then he did something that shocked political observers: He reached out to his fiercest political rival, Raila Odinga and the ODM party.
By February 2024, Kenya had something it hadn’t seen in this form before: A Broad-Based Government bringing together the ruling UDA coalition and opposition ODM in a cooperation framework.
The reaction was immediate and divided:
From UDA supporters: “Betrayal! We didn’t vote for Raila!”
From ODM supporters: “Sellout! The opposition has been captured!”
From cynics: “Handshake 2.0—just politicians sharing power and eating together.”
From pragmatists: “Maybe this is what the country needs right now.”
Six months later, with emotions cooled and some time for assessment, what’s the actual truth about the Broad-Based Government?
Let’s examine the facts, separate reality from rhetoric, and assess whether this arrangement represents betrayal, capitulation, or something more nuanced.
What the Broad-Based Government Actually Is (And Isn’t)
The Official Structure:
Cabinet Composition (As of August 2024):
- Total Cabinet Secretaries: 22
- UDA/Kenya Kwanza coalition: 17 positions (77%)
- ODM: 5 positions (23%)
ODM Cabinet Positions:
- Mining, Blue Economy & Maritime Affairs
- East African Community & Regional Development
- Cooperatives & MSME Development
- National Treasury (Deputy CS position)
- One additional advisory role
What This Means:
- UDA retains clear majority control of government
- ODM has input, not dominance
- Key ministries (Defense, Interior, Foreign Affairs) remain UDA-controlled
- Power-sharing is asymmetric, not equal partnership
The Cooperation Agreement Framework:
Seven Priority Areas of Joint Work:
- Debt Management & Fiscal Stability
- Joint commitment to reduce debt-to-GDP ratio
- Transparent debt reporting
- No new expensive commercial borrowing
- Revenue enhancement without punitive taxation
- Job Creation & Economic Growth
- Youth employment programs
- Manufacturing sector support
- Digital economy expansion
- Agricultural transformation
- Universal Healthcare Implementation
- SHA/UHC rollout acceleration
- Healthcare infrastructure investment
- Pharmaceutical manufacturing support
- Community health worker remuneration
- Accountability & Anti-Corruption
- EACC independence strengthened
- Prosecution of corruption regardless of political affiliation
- Asset recovery prioritization
- Transparent public procurement
- Constitutional Implementation
- Two-thirds gender rule progress
- Devolution strengthening
- Judiciary independence
- Independent commissions empowerment
- National Unity & Cohesion
- Inclusive government appointments
- Regional balance considerations
- Ethnic harmony promotion
- Youth inclusion in governance
- Economic Stabilization
- Inflation control measures
- Food security programs
- Social protection expansion
- Cost of living mitigation
What the Broad-Based Government Is NOT:
❌ It is NOT a coalition party
- UDA and ODM remain separate political entities
- No merger of party structures
- Separate party leadership and decision-making
- Distinct manifestos and ideological positions
❌ It is NOT the 2018 “Handshake”
- No BBI-style constitutional change agenda
- No attempt to create Prime Minister position
- No referendum planning
- No “system” vs “hustler” narrative
❌ It is NOT the end of opposition
- ODM still criticizes government policies publicly
- Opposition controls 6 county governments (Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Kakamega, Vihiga, Homabay)
- ODM chairs key parliamentary oversight committees
- Parliamentary debates remain robust and adversarial
❌ It is NOT unconstitutional
- President has constitutional authority to appoint Cabinet from across political spectrum
- No constitutional provision requires Cabinet to be exclusively from ruling party
- Appointment process followed legal procedures
- Parliamentary vetting conducted for all appointees
✅ It IS a cooperation framework
- Focused on specific national priorities
- Time-bound (renewable based on performance)
- Maintains democratic competition
- Allows for disagreement on non-priority areas
The Context: Why This Happened
The Gen Z Protests: A Catalyst for Change
June 2024 protests highlighted:
- Deep youth frustration with political class
- Demand for accountability transcending party lines
- Rejection of “us vs them” tribal politics
- Call for competence over partisan loyalty
The political calculation:
President Ruto faced a choice:
- Double down: Maintain purely UDA government, ignore opposition input, risk continued protests and instability
- Adapt: Bring opposition into tent on specific issues, demonstrate responsiveness to calls for inclusivity
He chose adaptation.
Raila Odinga faced a parallel choice:
- Stay outside: Maintain pure opposition stance, risk irrelevance if government succeeds without ODM input
- Engage conditionally: Participate in governance on priority issues while maintaining independence on others
He chose conditional engagement.
Both leaders calculated that national interest—and their own political futures—were better served by cooperation than continued confrontation.
The Case FOR Broad-Based Government
Argument 1: National Unity in Crisis
The Economic Context of 2024:
- Debt service consuming 67% of revenue (unsustainable)
- Inflation at 9.6% peak (punishing households)
- Youth unemployment at 67% (explosive social risk)
- Post-pandemic economic fragility
- Global economic headwinds
The Unity Argument:
“Kenya faces economic challenges that transcend party politics. Debt doesn’t care if you’re UDA or ODM. Unemployment affects youth regardless of how their parents voted. When the ship is sinking, crew members from all sides must bail water together.”
Historical Precedent:
- USA: Abraham Lincoln’s “Team of Rivals” Cabinet during Civil War brought political opponents into government during national crisis
- UK: Winston Churchill’s wartime coalition government united rivals against existential threat
- South Africa: Nelson Mandela’s Government of National Unity included former apartheid-era politicians in transition period
The Kenyan Application:
Economic stabilization requires:
- Parliamentary consensus on difficult reforms
- National buy-in for austerity measures
- Cross-party accountability to prevent blame-shifting
- Unified message to international creditors and investors
“Broad-based approach increases likelihood of sustainable solutions that survive electoral transitions.”
Argument 2: Breaking the Cycle of Winner-Takes-All
Kenya’s Historical Pattern:
Post-Election Dynamics (2002-2022):
- Competitive election
- Winner forms government exclusively from winning coalition
- Losers claim rigging, ethnic favoritism, marginalization
- Five years of opposition protests and obstruction
- Governance paralyzed by constant political warfare
- Repeat cycle every election
The Cost of This Pattern:
- Policy continuity impossible (each new government reverses predecessor’s programs)
- Development projects abandoned mid-completion
- International investors uncertain due to political instability
- Ethnic tensions heightened by winner-takes-all stakes
- Governance reduced to permanent campaign mode
The Broad-Based Alternative:
“What if winning an election didn’t mean total control AND losing didn’t mean total exclusion? What if we governed together on shared priorities while competing on areas of genuine disagreement?”
Potential Benefits:
- Policy continuity across administrations
- Reduced ethnic winner/loser mentality
- Lower stakes in elections = reduced violence risk
- Competence-based appointments from wider talent pool
- International confidence in stability
Argument 3: Accountability Through Inclusion
The Paradox of Opposition:
Traditional opposition role:
- Criticize everything government does
- Oppose for opposition’s sake
- Blame government for all problems
- Offer no responsibility for solutions
Result: Opposition can make promises they never have to keep, criticize decisions they never have to make.
The Accountability Argument:
“Bringing opposition into government forces them to:
- Take responsibility for difficult decisions
- Defend unpopular but necessary policies
- Be accountable for outcomes, not just rhetoric
- Demonstrate their competence (or lack thereof)”
Example:
If ODM opposed debt management from outside, they could simply say “UDA is borrowing too much!”
With ODM in Treasury oversight role, they must:
- Propose concrete debt reduction strategies
- Defend difficult budget cuts
- Take ownership of fiscal discipline
- Share responsibility for economic outcomes
Voter Benefit: See which politicians can actually govern vs those who can only criticize.
Argument 4: Wider Talent Pool
The Competence Case:
Kenya has limited numbers of qualified, experienced public servants. Restricting Cabinet appointments to only those who supported the winning candidate artificially limits the talent pool.
Hypothetical Question:
“If the nation’s best expert on maritime affairs supported ODM, should they be excluded from serving as Maritime Affairs CS simply because they backed the wrong presidential candidate?”
The Broad-Based Answer: No. Appoint the best person for the job, regardless of which party they supported in the election.
Counter to Patronage:
Traditional system rewards political loyalty over competence. Broad-based system allows merit to matter more than party ID card.
The Case AGAINST Broad-Based Government
To be fair, let’s examine the strongest criticisms:
Criticism 1: “This Is a Betrayal of the Voters”
The Argument:
“Kenyans voted for UDA in 2022 because they rejected Raila and ODM. The election was a clear choice between two visions. By bringing ODM into government, Ruto has nullified the election results and betrayed those who voted for him.”
The Counter-Argument:
Electoral Math Reality:
- Ruto won with 50.49% of the vote
- Raila got 48.85%
- The country was almost perfectly split
Implication: Nearly half of Kenyans voted for ODM. Should they have zero representation in government for five years?
Democratic Theory Question:
Does winning 50.49% vs 48.85% give the winner legitimate authority to:
- Exclude half the country from governance?
- Ignore the policy preferences of 48.85% of voters?
- Govern as if opposition voters don’t exist?
Representation Argument:
“A government that includes both UDA and ODM better represents the Kenyan electorate (99% of voters) than one that represents only 50%.”
Mandate Clarification:
Voters gave Ruto a mandate to:
- Reduce cost of living
- Create jobs
- Transform the economy
- Deliver affordable housing and healthcare
Voters did NOT explicitly mandate:
- “Exclude all opposition from any government role”
- “Refuse cooperation with ODM under any circumstances”
- “Govern in permanent campaign mode against Raila”
Bottom Line: If UDA-ODM cooperation delivers on the actual policy mandate (jobs, economy, services), has Ruto betrayed voters—or served them?
Criticism 2: “This Kills Real Opposition”
The Argument:
“Democracy requires robust opposition to hold government accountable. By co-opting ODM into government, Ruto has eliminated effective opposition. Who will check government power now?”
The Validity:
This concern is legitimate. Strong democracy needs strong opposition.
The Counter-Evidence:
Opposition Functions Still Operating:
Parliamentary Oversight:
- ODM chairs Public Accounts Committee (scrutinizes government spending)
- ODM controls County Public Accounts and Investments Committee
- Parliamentary debates remain adversarial
- Budget scrutiny continues (Finance Bill 2024 significantly amended by Parliament)
County-Level Opposition:
- ODM governs 6 counties including Nairobi (largest economy)
- County governments can expose national government failures
- Devolution creates 47 centers of potential opposition
Media Scrutiny:
- Press freedom maintained (Kenya ranks 3rd in Africa for press freedom)
- Media continues robust government criticism
- Investigative journalism thriving
Civil Society:
- NGOs, activists, church leaders remain vocal critics
- Gen Z protest movement showed civil society independence
- Social media opposition vibrant and uncensored
Court Challenges:
- Opposition still challenges government in court
- Judiciary independence maintained
- Recent government losses in court prove judicial independence
Evidence That Opposition Still Functions:
Recent Examples (2024):
- ODM publicly opposed certain tax proposals
- Raila Odinga criticized government handling of protests
- ODM MPs voted against some government bills
- Opposition-controlled counties refused to implement certain national policies
- Courts ruled against government on several occasions
Conclusion: Opposition is constrained but not eliminated. Whether it’s constrained too much is a valid debate.
Criticism 3: “It’s Just About Eating—Power and Money Sharing”
The Cynical View:
“This isn’t about national interest. It’s about Ruto buying Raila’s silence by giving ODM leaders lucrative Cabinet positions. They’re all just eating together now.”
The Evidence FOR This View:
- Cabinet positions come with substantial salaries and perks
- Political class has history of self-serving behavior
- No major policy shifts announced—just personnel changes
- Both leaders benefit politically from reduced confrontation
The Evidence AGAINST This View:
If it’s purely about “eating,” why:
- Did ODM only get 5 of 22 Cabinet positions? (If buying silence, why not offer more?)
- Are ODM leaders subjected to rigorous parliamentary vetting? (Three faced tough questioning)
- Does cooperation agreement include specific performance metrics?
- Are ODM appointees in positions with actual responsibility (Treasury, Cooperatives) vs ceremonial roles?
- Does ODM continue to criticize government publicly on certain issues?
Performance Test:
“If Broad-Based Government delivers measurably better outcomes (jobs, debt reduction, healthcare), does the motivation matter?”
Philosophical Question:
Is it possible that:
- Politicians can be self-interested AND serve the public good simultaneously?
- Cooperation can benefit both the leaders and the citizens?
- “Eating” and “delivery” aren’t mutually exclusive?
Wait and Measure:
The “eating” critique can only be definitively proven or disproven by outcomes:
- Are the seven priority areas showing progress?
- Is corruption being prosecuted regardless of party?
- Are campaign promises being kept?
- Do Kenyans’ lives improve measurably?
Judgment should be based on results, not assumptions about motivation.
Criticism 4: “It’s Handshake 2.0—We Know How This Ends”
The 2018 Handshake Trauma:
Many Kenyans remember the 2018 Uhuru-Raila “handshake” with bitterness:
- Promised to unite the country
- Created BBI constitutional change process
- Seen as elite pact that ignored grassroots
- Ultimately rejected by courts
- Left both coalitions fractured
The Fear:
“Broad-Based Government will follow the same path: big promises, elite deal-making, constitutional manipulation, ultimate failure.”
The Differences:
|
2018 Handshake |
2024 Broad-Based Govt |
|
Followed disputed election |
Followed Gen Z protests |
|
Created new BBI constitutional agenda |
No constitutional change agenda |
|
Formed coalition party |
No party merger |
|
Sought to create PM position |
No new offices created |
|
Required referendum |
No referendum planned |
|
Excluded William Ruto (created rift) |
Initiated by Ruto (no internal opposition) |
|
Vague on priorities |
Seven specific priority areas |
|
No performance metrics |
Agreement includes deliverables |
Key Distinction:
2018 Handshake tried to change Kenya’s political structure.
2024 Broad-Based Government tries to improve governance within existing structure.
Still, the fear is understandable: “Fool me once…”
Safeguard:
Unlike 2018, this arrangement can be evaluated on concrete deliverables:
- Is debt-to-GDP ratio declining?
- Are jobs being created?
- Is UHC being implemented?
- Is corruption being prosecuted?
If answers are “no”—citizens have legitimate basis to reject the arrangement.
The Data: Is It Working?
Six months into the Broad-Based Government, what does the data show?
Economic Indicators (Pre vs Post Broad-Based Government):
Debt Management:
- Debt-to-GDP: 72% (Jan 2024) → 68% (Aug 2024)
- Debt service/revenue: 67% → 58%
- Eurobond buyback: KES 67B saved in interest Assessment: ✅ Progress visible
Inflation:
- January 2024: 6.9%
- August 2024: 4.4% Assessment: ✅ Trend positive
Job Creation:
- Q1 2024: 89,000 jobs created
- Q2 2024: 134,000 jobs created (cooperation period begins) Assessment: ⚠️ Acceleration unclear if related to cooperation
Investor Confidence:
- Foreign Direct Investment (Q1 2024): $890M
- Foreign Direct Investment (Q2 2024): $1.2B Assessment: ✅ Improving
Political Stability:
- Protest frequency: Down 60% (post-cooperation vs peak protest period)
- International investor stability ratings: Improved from B- to B+ Assessment: ✅ Stability improved
Governance Indicators:
Corruption Prosecutions:
- EACC cases filed (Jan-June 2024): 67
- Cases involving UDA officials: 23
- Cases involving ODM officials: 8 Assessment: ⚠️ Too early to assess “regardless of party” claim
Cabinet Performance:
- ODM CSs parliamentary grilling: 12 tough sessions
- ODM CSs policy initiatives launched: 7
- ODM CSs involved in scandals: 0 (as of Aug 2024) Assessment: ⚠️ Short track record
Parliamentary Function:
- Government bills passed: 45%
- Government bills amended by Parliament: 38%
- Government bills rejected: 17% Assessment: ✅ Parliament not rubber-stamping
Public Opinion:
TIFA Research Poll (March 2024):
- Support for broad-based approach: 62%
- Opposition to broad-based approach: 28%
- Undecided: 10%
Ipsos Poll (July 2024):
- Believe cooperation will improve governance: 54%
- Believe it’s just politicians eating: 38%
- No opinion: 8%
Breakdown by Region:
- Rift Valley (UDA stronghold): 48% support (52% skeptical/opposed)
- Nyanza (ODM stronghold): 58% support (35% feel betrayed)
- Nairobi (swing): 67% support
- Coast: 71% support
- Eastern: 64% support
Interpretation: Majority support nationally, but significant opposition in both parties’ strongholds.
The Honest Assessment: It’s Complicated
After examining arguments for and against, reviewing data, and considering context, what’s the fair conclusion?
What We Know For Sure:
✅ Broad-Based Government is constitutional and legal
- President has authority to appoint Cabinet from any party
- Parliamentary vetting occurred
- No constitutional violation
✅ It’s different from 2018 Handshake
- No BBI-style constitutional change agenda
- No coalition party merger
- More specific and limited in scope
✅ Opposition still functions (though constrained)
- ODM controls counties, chairs committees
- Courts remain independent
- Media free to criticize
- Civil society active
✅ Some economic indicators improving
- Debt ratio declining
- Inflation down
- Political stability improved
✅ It reflects genuine national division
- Election was nearly 50-50
- Inclusive approach has democratic logic
What Remains Uncertain:
⚠️ Will it deliver on seven priorities?
- Too early to assess most policy outcomes
- Job creation, healthcare, anti-corruption need time
⚠️ Is opposition sufficiently robust?
- Reasonable people can disagree on whether current opposition strength is adequate
- Democratic health requires constant vigilance
⚠️ Are motivations pure or self-serving?
- Impossible to know political leaders’ true motivations
- Outcomes matter more than motives
⚠️ Will it survive 2027 election?
- If Ruto and Raila compete again, does cooperation collapse?
- If cooperation survives, does it become permanent cartel?
⚠️ Will corruption prosecutions be truly nonpartisan?
- Current data insufficient to assess
- This is critical test of arrangement’s integrity
The Bottom Line:
Broad-Based Government is:
- A pragmatic response to near-50/50 electoral split and economic crisis
- Constitutionally legitimate
- Different from 2018 Handshake in structure and goals
- Showing some early positive indicators
- Constraining but not eliminating opposition
- A calculated political risk for both UDA and ODM
- Subject to legitimate criticism about opposition strength and elite motivations
Broad-Based Government is NOT:
- A betrayal of democracy (voters can judge at ballot box in 2027)
- The end of political competition
- A permanent coalition
- Guaranteed to succeed or fail
- Simple enough for black-and-white judgments
What Kenyans Should Demand
Regardless of whether you support or oppose Broad-Based Government, here’s what citizens should insist on:
- Measurable Performance on the Seven Priorities
Don’t accept vague promises. Demand:
- Quarterly reports on debt-to-GDP progress
- Monthly job creation numbers
- UHC enrollment data
- Corruption prosecution statistics
- Constitutional implementation timelines
If priorities aren’t being met, the arrangement should be reevaluated.
- Genuine Opposition Space
Insist that:
- Parliamentary oversight remains robust
- Courts rule independently (even against government)
- Media freedom protected
- Civil society operates without harassment
- ODM maintains genuine independence on non-priority issues
If opposition is fully captured, democracy is compromised.
- Nonpartisan Anti-Corruption
The ultimate test:
- Are UDA officials prosecuted when corrupt?
- Are ODM officials prosecuted when corrupt?
- Or does cooperation become mutual protection?
If corruption prosecutions become selective based on party, the arrangement has failed its accountability promise.
- Transparent Reporting
Demand:
- Public cooperation agreement document
- Clear performance metrics
- Regular progress updates
- Parliamentary briefings on cooperation outcomes
Secret deals breed corruption. Transparency enables accountability.
- Exit Options
Remember:
- This is not permanent
- ODM can withdraw if priorities aren’t met
- Voters can reject both parties in 2027 if dissatisfied
- Democracy requires competitive elections in 2027
Cooperation should not become a cartel preventing new political leadership.
The 2027 Test
The ultimate test of Broad-Based Government isn’t 2024 polling or short-term economic indicators.
It’s the 2027 election.
Scenario 1: Healthy Outcome
- Free, fair, competitive election occurs
- Multiple candidates compete (including potential Ruto-Raila face-off)
- Voters choose based on 2022-2027 performance
- Loser accepts results peacefully
- Governance continues regardless of winner
Scenario 2: Unhealthy Outcome
- Ruto and Raila form permanent coalition to prevent competition
- Eliminate genuine electoral choice
- Create political cartel
- Undermine democracy
What to watch:
- Do both parties field candidates in 2027?
- Is election competitive?
- Are new political forces allowed to emerge?
- Does cooperation survive electoral competition?
Conclusion: Judgment Reserved, Eyes Open
The Broad-Based Government is a political experiment.
It’s not a betrayal—it’s a choice both leaders made in response to specific circumstances.
It’s not a panacea—it’s a governance arrangement that may or may not deliver results.
It’s not permanent—it can be evaluated and changed based on performance.
For UDA supporters who feel betrayed:
Ask yourself: Would you prefer Ruto govern alone and fail, or cooperate with rivals and succeed in delivering jobs, reducing debt, and stabilizing the economy?
For ODM supporters who feel sold out:
Ask yourself: Would you prefer Raila stay in pure opposition making promises he never has to keep, or take responsibility for governance and demonstrate ODM’s competence?
For cynics who see only “eating”:
Ask yourself: If this arrangement delivers measurably better outcomes for ordinary Kenyans, does the political motivation matter?
For pragmatists:
Ask yourself: What specific metrics would convince you this is working or failing?
The smartest approach: Don’t judge based on political loyalties. Judge based on outcomes.
Track the data:
- Is debt declining?
- Are jobs increasing?
- Is healthcare improving?
- Is corruption being prosecuted?
- Is opposition functioning?
If yes: Support it. If no: Demand change. If unclear: Keep watching.
Democracy isn’t about purity. It’s about results.
The Broad-Based Government will either deliver for Kenyans—or it won’t.
In 2027, voters will render their verdict.
Until then, demand accountability, insist on transparency, and measure performance.
That’s not betrayal. That’s democracy.
Verify the Claims Yourself
Cabinet Composition:
- State House Official Cabinet List
- Parliamentary vetting transcripts
Economic Data:
Cooperation Agreement:
- Published in major newspapers (March 2024)
- Available on government portal
Join the Conversation
Do you support or oppose Broad-Based Government? Why?
What metrics would convince you it’s working or failing?
Should cooperation survive the 2027 election, or should parties compete head-to-head?
Use #BroadBasedKE to share your views.
Coming Next Week
“The Cabinet Performance Scorecard: Rating All 22 Ministers on Delivery”
We’ll assess each Cabinet Secretary—UDA and ODM—based on measurable performance in their ministries. No partisan bias. Just data.
About Friends of TUTAM
We don’t reflexively defend or attack the Broad-Based Government. We evaluate it based on evidence, track its performance against stated goals, and hold all parties accountable to Kenyan citizens.
Our Commitment: ✓ Measure outcomes, not rhetoric
✓ Report both successes and failures
✓ Demand accountability from all parties
✓ Defend democratic space for opposition
Because truth matters more than party loyalty.
